How Ambode’s ‘I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody’ let him down

 

Ambo-politics proved a sitting Governor costly in Lagos 

Muhammad Malumfashi

 

-          Brother, what is happening in Lagos APC ne? Ambode is getting 5 votes out of over 13, 000 o in this primaries!

-          My friend, Ambode is gone. Better start practicing this Sanwo-Olu name! 

-          But they said Ambode is the best Governor since 2015, why did they want him out now suddenly?

-          As if you are a learner, it is all politics. Tinubu said he is doing well as a Governor, only that he is not a party man. 

-          Imagine! The poor man didn’t see that coming. He didn’t have anyone in the party?

-          Yes, you know Jagaban strikes last! No one gave Ambo the warning signs, he was enjoying his office. They said some cabals are against Tinubu in his cabinet. You know Tinubu is warming up as Baba prepares for second and last half of the game. He can’t lose Lagos.

-          That is serious fa!

-          Wallai! His Deputy has left him too, the woman is now with Tinubu people. Ambode is only left with his wife. He can’t win even in that Epe.

-          Kai!! Why didn’t he defect toh? He can move to PDP, SDP, or ADC now. 

-          It won’t take 12 hours to serve him an impeachment notice from the house if he’s left the APC. 36 out of 40 Assembly members are on Tinubu’s side. That Speaker is an Asiwaju boy o! And you think he can win an election on other platforms? Who will work for him this time? Isn't all about money!

-          But I heard the ward Councilors are with Ambode, isn’t it so?

-          Which ward men when 57 LGA and LCDA Chairs are backing Sonwo-Olu! Almost sll the APC structures is 100% with the new man.

-          Wai, look, what is really his offence Muhammadu?

-          Well, they said he neglected party men and politicians, and hes developed some unusual ego.

-          Didn’t they accuse many people of that? Why didn’t the party deny them tickets? My Governor is fighting civil servants, elites, Emirs, everybody, but yet he is still standing! Even that former APC Chairman Oyegun complained about that. They said Buhari only meets with his CPC guys when he wakes up in the morning. And they still went to give him his ticket despite not giving enough appointments. Is it not the same Ambode that appointed Sanwo-Olu in his Gov’t?

-          But that is Baba now, now he even use to travel with Tinubu and Akande. Didn’t you hear him telling Asiwaju he prefers to see him closer to him now and again, Tinubu said Ambo is deviating, he is not following the master-plan!

-          Okay, Muhammadu tell me, which APC plan is Buhari following? Didn’t he abandon all the manifestos and went on with his kwarafshin! He said everyone should go to farm!

-          This is all politics, as you have said. You know Tinubu had similar issue with Fashola. Just that Tunde is a SAN and very intelligent. 

-           Yes, i know about the cold war going on with even most West leaders. Look they said Ambode was even working against Asiwaju in Osun, you know Aregbesola is now handing over to Tinubu’s cousin again there? Tinubu picked Rauf too in 2010 and he is still one of his main boys today.

-          Really!? But didn’t the same Tinubu boys worked against the APC and Akeredolu in Ondo recently? They supported Olusola Oke’s party pa! I’m just surprised Ambode didn’t see all this coming. 

-          May be he wanted Abuja to help, like what just happened to Senator Shehu Sani in Kaduna. But even Buhari couldn’t stop Tinubu. They keep saying Ambo is against Asiwaju and you know this is almost 2023, Tinubu is laying everything ready in the APC, he can’t lose the West, didn’t you see what happened in Osun ne?

-          That Osun, I believe courts will nullify some parts of the election. 

-          You think so, hmm! This isn’t 2008, it is 2018. I know that Tinubu has to get the South West all under him now. Let’s see what happens in Ogun, and Oyo now. 

-          Toh Malam Muhammadu!

-          Many don’t see beyond what is going on in the APC and 2023, they are still in Sai Baba mode. I understand why some bigwigs left the APC for PDP Malam. I just hope things keep going well for him. 

-          Mu dai Sai Baba wallahi, ka ji!

-          Let’s see who PDP picks, Otedola may contest now that Ambode is almost out! But let’s wait ‘Danuwa, 2019 will be very interesting.

-          The most interesting in a while. Thank you my Friend!

-          Bye, I need to talk to Mimi.

-          Wait, who is Mimi?

-          Haha… bye! She is calling me!

 

-          …

Muhammad Malumfashi wrote this from Zaria. You can follow him on Twitter @m_malumfashi

As Shekarau and Kwankwaso set to go seperate ways again in Kano

What Shekarau’s defection would mean to 2019 

- M. Malumfashi

 

Now that I am free in a far Enugu, let me say a few things about the happenings in Kano which is one of the largest political engine rooms in Nigeria. It’s speculated that Ibrahim Shekarau’s one leg is away from the PDP and set to go back to the APC, if these reports happen to be true, then i have this to write:

Malam will return to the APC, a party he left after playing a huge role in its formation when he was in the ANPP. Similarly, Shekarau left the APC weeks after his biggest political enemy Kwankwaso joined the party. It’s speculated that Shekarau will get a Senatorial ticket and a Deputy Governor slot for his camp or at least a Ministerial slot from Osinbajo if he dumps the PDP. As it looks to me now, Takai who has been in Shekarau’s cabinet doesn’t look ready to abandon his 7 year old guber ambition for some Deputy Governor office in Ganduje’s Kano after pledging his loyalty to the new Kano State PDP leader, a Kwankwaso rightest hand man!

Many’d say it’s a bit silly for Shekarau to leave the PDP for such juicy offers when he can easily get that in his PDP. Whichever party Shekarau contests for Senate in, he’d win as long as he clinches the ticket, especially with Kwankwaso seeming totally unbothered about retaining his seat. In the APC right now it seems the odds may not favor the Ex Gov. looking at how some of Ganduje’ strongest men have positioned themselves; Ibrahim Kankarofi, who is the PPS to Governor, Nasiru Gawuna and even the former Senator Bashir Lado, who will all give Shekarau big headache if he is to go back to the APC. The Presidency seems a difficult job for the man, yet again.

In the PDP, Shekarau will easily get a Senate ticket if he loses at the Presidential primaries (most likely), and his man contesting for the Governorship. Kwankwasiyya in Kano would say that is a bit too much for Shekarau in all decency. Senator Kwankwaso defected from the APC to PDP with about 20 State & Federal Lawmakers, a Deputy Governor and dozens of Governor Ganduje aides, a near 50-50 share for the State’s biggest politician’s in the party structure seems a good offer, this is what Shekarau and his allies are against. It’s reported the PDP was exactly restructured when Shekarau joined with even fewer politicians after Kwankwaso left the party 3 years ago. 

It’s needless to say with a combined force of Shekarau and Kwankwaso, Ganduje will be history in Kano politics. Ganduje may have tactically avoided a Takai – Dangwani – Hafiz combination in 2019.If Shekarau decides to leave the party and his people – long term ally Takai, Wali, Gwarzo and others for APC’s promises, then 2019 has taken another shape and Ganduje has the odds in much favor. It is funny this means a plus for Kwankwaso’s 2019 presidency ambition. Kano has over 300 delegates and with Kwankwaso having sole control of that, he may have a huge advantage in the primaries, something Atiku, Saraki and others may not like to hear at the moment, obviously. 

It doesn’t look much like a good idea for Shekarau’s camp to take the No. 2 seat, right now, PDP’s leading Salihu Takai isn’t relinquishing his guber ambition, and at least it looks so. The cabals around Ganduje may give the Shekarau boys another Hafiz treatment (for his unflinching Kwankwasiyya stance) knowing well the prime ambition of the Shekarau boys at the Government house. I don’t know if Shekarau will consider a Ministerial compensation from the FG (after 2019) in APC, however, it is still unclear if President Muhammadu Buhari will let General Abdurrahman Dambazzau leave his cabinet after the re-election, if he wins again, yes!

No matter how you look at it, Shekarau would make a huge gamble re-joining the APC from a PDP that can give him all that he wants, except the Presidential ticket, that doesn’t look like a reality for now. May be he just can’t work with his predecessor and successor, Kwankwaso. At the end, we are back to where we were in Nigeria's politics. Now let me answer this young ladies call on the video.

Bye!

Muhammad Malumfashi tweets @m_malumfashi

Sai Baba: A rare political ideology and the lessons from bye-elections

Sai Babalogy: A rare case of politics and the take-away from the recent INEC bye-elections

During the weekend, there were some bye-elections to fill in the seats of the lost Senators in the North. We now have 3 new APC NASS members, they just said 'Sai Baba!!' and boom, they are Lawmakers!


As I said earlier; one campaigned with some few onions seeing Eid is close, one from Southern Bauchi promised to make Buhari a life President once he gets to the chamber, Oh! Our great Tafawa-Balewa. The other I heard defeated his Elder brother who helped him win his re-election in 2015. I also learnt that the new Katsina Senator is one of the best Legislators in the State. That doesn’t stop the PDP from crying foul anyway, how the mighty have fallen! It’s alleged that 5 APC Governors mustered over N2bn to buy votes, with advanced technology, traditional rigging is getting out of place.

In Daura, where Buhari hails from PDP got over 50, 000 votes and may be close to 25%, had it been the red cap Brigades waited a day long, the results would have been different, anyway this should be APC’s strongest hold in the country. In Sarkin Yara ward where Buhari votes but was absent this time, his APC got 1984 votes, 1984 loves Buhari. In Katsina North, APC got over 200,000 votes which is close to the total vote’s difference Buhari got in Lagos, Ondo and Ogun in 2015 Presidential elections. A little votes over 200, 000 made some common men become Governors for 8 years in some other parts of the Country.

In Bauchi South, APC got about 120, 000 votes, exactly what APC got in the whole of Ekiti State in the last Presidential elections, only that the people of Bauchi don’t care about what the FG is doing in Bauchi as far as they are alive and Baba is in power, AlhamdulilLah! They are certain Buhari loves them and before his tenure ends, there new prison will be operational. I heard some old women shouted Sai Baba and kissed the ballots before voting for the Senator that wil make Buhari a life President, who cares about laws that will curb Almajiranci, reduce poverty, tackle illiteracy, who needs all those useless laws when you have Baba in the Villa?

In any case I see that the NNPP, GPN, SDP and PDP get almost the same votes as the APC in Bauchi, is someone taking note of that? In Bauchi like Katsina, the new Senator is also a serving House of Reps, Gumau represents Toro whilst Babba-Kaita represents Kusada/Ingawa/Kankia in the lower chamber. Now another bye-election must hold since these Honorables have been promoted, a law should be made to tackle this gamble-game, it will save INEC a lot of money conducting extra elections. In Kogi, the case was worse, big lives were lost, ballots snatched, 3 fresh onions were shared by the great APC of Yahaya Bello who is doing a wonderful job despite doubling on with a secondment job in the Villa, by the time he finish his tenure from Abuja, we will be thinking of replacing every other Governor with a 40 year old young man. 


No need to tell you that PDP won a House of assembly seat in Cross-River, the woman who won the election is replacing her late husband very soon, but in the State chambers for now.

Muhammad Malumfashi wrote this and next time I will tell you where I stand, shikenan?!?

Now that they have left the APC by Muhammad Malumfashi

 

The Aftermath of the recent Exodus from APC 

- M. Malumfashi 

What these parties actually are is an election campaign organizations … Late Yusufu Bala Usman

In 2014, the nPDP triggered the collapse of the then mighty ruling party, the PDP. A huge factor that contributed to that was the decamping of 5 Governors to the APC. Politically what happened wasn’t a total endorsement of Buhari’s APC but a clear rejection of Jonathan’s PDP. Most of the nPDP except Rotimi Amaechi, Jummai Alhassan and quite few have been made to go back to opposition, with their party structure being somehow illegally dissolved, men replaced and even accused of corruption in office. 

Bamanga Tukur, the PDP Chairman arrogantly dismissed the threats of the Governors, something years later the APC National Chairman John Oyegun didn’t stop from happening, couple with President Buhari’s I don care attitude to his party’ internal politics, it made the situation so bad and late for the new APC Chairman Oshiomhole to deal with. APC might be lucky that no more than 3 state Governors will be leaving the party, but it will haunt them big even after the 2019. 

When you look at the recent members decamping, they have one thing in common, they have fallen apart with their State Governors and may never get a return ticket in 2019, and this is the situation in almost all the States but Kwara. The lucky ones may get a ticket in the PDP they have returned to. The President hasn’t helped matters at all by not wading into the crisis, neither did he try to stop his temporary friends from becoming his enemies once again. It may not really hurt Buhari much!

In Kwara State where the Senate President comes from, he has been in one court or the other simply because of the position he occupies, he and the President have never been comfortable in the same party, the machineries at the Presidency have been busy fighting Saraki while his NASS has done it’s all to fight back. Buhari may have never in any way fight Saraki, exactly he has never done nothing to save him. Though he is still in the APC, but the game shows that once the PDP have the official majority in NASS, he will leave the APC, fight back dirty this time, then try to win 2019. I believe, the defecting members from Kwara have future in the NASS as far as Sarakism is concerned. This totally is not the case in Jigawa, Bauchi, Kaduna and even Kano. The Speaker of the lower chamber Dogara, for some reasons have a lot more to do in Bauchi State. 

Anyway, the real fight is not against Buhari but against the APC, even with such collision, it will be very difficult to vote out Buhari in 2019. It will be more difficult for the APC to remain at the center after 2019. It will be an eye-opener to 2023!

There are men of principle, but there is no party of principle – A. D Tocqueville 

Kwankwasiyya: The big fight in Kano and may be Nigeria?

Kwankwaso unlike Saraki may find troubles in Kano and the PDP. Kwankwaso and Arch-rival Shekarau uniting under the same party and ganging up to beat Ganduje and Buhari is one thing nobody ever imagined few years back in Nigerian politics. Months back I wrote here advising Kwankwaso not to leave the APC. In what looks like a forced marriage, the former Governor decided to go back to his home even after meeting with Mr. President Hours earlier.

With Atiku in the PDP for over half a year before Kwankwaso, it means the former VP is a bit ahead in the race (well that didn’t stop him from trailing behind Kwankwaso in the APC primaries). Over 70 year old Atiku who Kwankwaso met while ago is serious about his ambition in 2019. Shekarau, Turaki, and even Lamido and Makarfi who have never left the PDP may settle for a consensus for the party presidential primaries if won’t favor them. It’s not a secret that the PDP will need someone with the money of Atiku and the following of Kwankwaso to stand a chance against Buhari and his APC next year. At the end, the primaries may be against Kwankwaso and Atiku once again who contested against each other in a different party in December 2014.

In Kano, Shekarau may settle for a Senatorial ticket, replacing Kwankwaso who seems not bothered by the Senate anymore, this looks like his best option even though no one is talking about it, Shekarau who commands large followers will easily beat anyone Ganduje’s APC field to represent Central Kano. With Shekarau and Kwankwaso massive support, the PDP stand a good chance of defeating Ganduje. If Kwankwaso isn’t able to secure the hot seat, or even the PDP ticket, he will be feared more in Nigerian politics, if he at least unseat the man he brought to power in Kano. Then he Kwankwaso, will be where Buhari was in 2011 and may be closer to the Villa than people thought. 

I can’t keep talking about 2019, because that girl just called call me. Can’t wait, not for the elections, but to hear her voice.

Muhammad Malumfashi is a blind Buharist who tweets @m_malumfashi