The Aftermath of the recent Exodus from APC
- M. Malumfashi
What these parties actually are is an
election campaign organizations … Late Yusufu Bala Usman
In
2014, the nPDP triggered the collapse of the then mighty ruling party, the PDP.
A huge factor that contributed to that was the decamping of 5 Governors to the
APC. Politically what happened wasn’t a total endorsement of Buhari’s APC but a
clear rejection of Jonathan’s PDP. Most of the nPDP except Rotimi Amaechi,
Jummai Alhassan and quite few have been made to go back to opposition, with
their party structure being somehow illegally dissolved, men replaced and even
accused of corruption in office.
Bamanga
Tukur, the PDP Chairman arrogantly dismissed the threats of the Governors,
something years later the APC National Chairman John Oyegun didn’t stop from
happening, couple with President Buhari’s I
don care attitude to his party’ internal politics, it made the situation so
bad and late for the new APC Chairman Oshiomhole to deal with. APC might be
lucky that no more than 3 state Governors will be leaving the party, but it
will haunt them big even after the 2019.
When
you look at the recent members decamping, they have one thing in common, they
have fallen apart with their State Governors and may never get a return ticket
in 2019, and this is the situation in almost all the States but Kwara. The
lucky ones may get a ticket in the PDP they have returned to. The President
hasn’t helped matters at all by not wading into the crisis, neither did he try
to stop his temporary friends from becoming his enemies once again. It may not
really hurt Buhari much!
In
Kwara State where the Senate President comes from, he has been in one court or
the other simply because of the position he occupies, he and the President have
never been comfortable in the same party, the machineries at the Presidency
have been busy fighting Saraki while his NASS has done it’s all to fight back.
Buhari may have never in any way fight Saraki, exactly he has never done nothing
to save him. Though he is still in the APC, but the game shows that once the
PDP have the official majority in NASS, he will leave the APC, fight back dirty
this time, then try to win 2019. I believe, the defecting members from Kwara have
future in the NASS as far as Sarakism is concerned. This totally is not the
case in Jigawa, Bauchi, Kaduna and even Kano. The Speaker of the lower chamber
Dogara, for some reasons have a lot more to do in Bauchi State.
Anyway,
the real fight is not against Buhari but against the APC, even with such
collision, it will be very difficult to vote out Buhari in 2019. It will be
more difficult for the APC to remain at the center after 2019. It will be an
eye-opener to 2023!
There are men of principle, but there
is no party of principle – A. D Tocqueville
Kwankwasiyya:
The big fight in Kano and may be Nigeria?
Kwankwaso
unlike Saraki may find troubles in Kano and the PDP. Kwankwaso and Arch-rival
Shekarau uniting under the same party and ganging up to beat Ganduje and Buhari
is one thing nobody ever imagined few years back in Nigerian politics. Months
back I wrote here advising Kwankwaso not to leave the APC. In what looks like a
forced marriage, the former Governor decided to go back to his home even after
meeting with Mr. President Hours earlier.
With
Atiku in the PDP for over half a year before Kwankwaso, it means the former VP
is a bit ahead in the race (well that didn’t stop him from trailing behind
Kwankwaso in the APC primaries). Over 70 year old Atiku who Kwankwaso met while
ago is serious about his ambition in 2019. Shekarau, Turaki, and even Lamido
and Makarfi who have never left the PDP may settle for a consensus for the
party presidential primaries if won’t favor them. It’s not a secret that the
PDP will need someone with the money of Atiku and the following of Kwankwaso to
stand a chance against Buhari and his APC next year. At the end, the primaries
may be against Kwankwaso and Atiku once again who contested against each other
in a different party in December 2014.
In
Kano, Shekarau may settle for a Senatorial ticket, replacing Kwankwaso who
seems not bothered by the Senate anymore, this looks like his best option even
though no one is talking about it, Shekarau who commands large followers will
easily beat anyone Ganduje’s APC field to represent Central Kano. With Shekarau
and Kwankwaso massive support, the PDP stand a good chance of defeating
Ganduje. If Kwankwaso isn’t able to secure the hot seat, or even the PDP
ticket, he will be feared more in Nigerian politics, if he at least unseat the
man he brought to power in Kano. Then he Kwankwaso, will be where Buhari was in
2011 and may be closer to the Villa than people thought.
I
can’t keep talking about 2019, because that girl just called call me. Can’t wait, not
for the elections, but to hear her voice.
Muhammad
Malumfashi is a blind Buharist who tweets @m_malumfashi
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